The ROI on voting, door knocking, and phone banking in swing states

I’ll be spending this weekend phone banking.

I encourage you to go knock on doors or phone bank as well.

This is a very important election and a very close election.

As 80,000 hours demonstrates, it’s well worth you time to both vote and encourage others to vote.

I. The Stakes are High 

Both in terms of finances and global peace, American elections are very important. 80,000 hours writes:

By this measure then, a single vote with a 1 in 10 million chance of changing the election outcome would be worth $300,000 to US shareholders as a whole. This also ignores effects on economies overseas, which in some cases seemed to be almost as large – or domestic impacts like unemployment.

On top of this, each four years the US President makes decisions affecting the immigration status of millions of people, and choices about wars that in some cases have resulted in 100,000s of deaths.

Speaking of war – imagine you think over four years with one candidate there’s a 0.1% chance of nuclear war, and 0.2% with the other. How valuable is it to vote for the safer one?

II. Swing States Matter

They note:

But if you’re in a swing state, like Florida, Nevada or New Hampshire, the odds are often around 1 in 10 million that your vote will change the outcome, and can be even better. In the closest state in an election with perfectly even polling, the odds could be as high as 1 in 1 million.

III. You Can Influence People in Swing States by Using Phones and Knocking on Their Doors


Every 38 people you call may change one vote in a swing state!

IV. Get to Work!

Over the next few days, there will be a high anticipated ROI for getting out the vote in swing states.

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