I’ve written recently about how incoming teacher SAT scores are on the rise, perhaps because of recession is pushing more people into teaching.
Here’s an interesting (to me) but probably not true theory: what if there’s an on-going causal relationship between the economy and the teacher labor force?
It might look something like this:
1. The economy drags.
2. Higher-quality candidates enter the classroom due to reduced opportunities in other sectors.
3. Children learn more because of these higher-quality teachers.
4. Better educated children eventually lead to a more productive workforce.
5. The economy hums.
6. Higher-quality human capital enters more lucrative professions instead of entering the teaching force.
7. Children learn less.
8. Under-educated children eventually lead to a less productive workforce.
9. The economy drags.
10. The cycle begins again.
I can think of numerous reasons (timing, size of effects etc.) why this might not be true.
And I’m sure some economist has put forth this cycle and a hundred others have proven it wrong.
But the cycle crossed my mind so I thought I’d share it. Such is the power of being a blogger.
Don’t worry, I’ll send out some sentences to ponder later today so you can get your fill of some more rigorous thinking.