Category Archives: Charter schools

Who is the Villain? Why?

I. The Villains

Over the past few weeks, three major stories came out that either directly or indirectly covered charter schools. Their headlines are below.

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In many newspaper stories, there is a good guy and a bad guy.

For me, the commonality of these very different stories was that, in each of them, charter schools were either explicitly or implicitly cast as the villains.

II. Detroit 

In Kate Zernike’s story, the headline clearly points to a “sea of charter schools” as the reason Detroit’s students aren’t performing well.

The story opens with an anecdote about a child being failed by a charter school.

The growth of charters is called “competition and chaos.”

The phrases pile up on top of each other: …”unchecked growth”…”glut of schools”… “cannabilized”…”unfettered growth”…

And the most literary: “pugnacious protector of the charter school prerogative.”

As many have noted, the article failed to mention a CREDO study that found Detroit charters to be outperforming traditional schools.

Moreover, the article failed to detail that it was the traditional school system that has needed bail out after bail out – and that has been the source of much corruption.

Ultimately, charter schools grew to serve half of the students in Detroit; they outperformed the traditional sector; and, unlike the traditional sector, they did not require hundreds of millions of dollars in bailout funds.

Reasonable people can debate whether better than the existing system is good enough.

But to frame charters as the villains of Detroit public education is quite odd, especially when the traditional system is performing academically and financially worse.

III. Rocketship

Anya Kamenetz’s story covered Rocketship Schools, which serves low-income families across the country.

Anya paints a rather grim picture: “infections due to denial of restroom visits,” “hours of enforced silence,” “a culture of producing test scores at all costs.”

Rather amazingly, she ends the piece with a two paragraph quotation from the head of a local union:

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It is clear: Rocketship is the villain.

Yet, no family is forced to go to a Rocketship school. Rather, they all attend because they have made a proactive decision to pull their child out of an existing traditional school, which they presumably felt was not providing a great education.

So a school gets good academic scores, creates an environment that tens of thousands families want their children to be a part of, opens it doors to any family that wishes to attend – and it is the villain. Whereas the failing school system – where according to the union leaders “parents are happy” – is not the villain.

The world feels upside down.

III. Brooklyn

Kate Taylor’s piece is less directly about charter schools; rather, it is about a failing district school that is making improvements but is being forced to co-locate with an expanding Success Academy school.

On its face, the district is the villain of this story, as Kate frames the story as one of the district promising the building to a charter without giving the failing school a chance to improve.

Yet, the language of the story often hints at Success Academy being a secondary villain.

Kate writes:

“Now, in a twist, even as it grows, J.H.S. 50 will have to give up five classrooms next year, because the Success Academy school is expanding to fifth grade… J.H.S. 50 will probably have to turn its dance studio into a regular classroom. It is likely to lose a new computer lab Mr. Reynoso financed. And several rooms will need to do double duty, as both a classroom and a music room, for instance.”

A school who has failed students for years is the good guy; the school that has incredibly high demand and is providing a great education is the one who is taking something away from children.

IV. The Failing School System is Never the Villain

The point of this post is not to say the Detroit charter sector, Rocketship, and Success Academies are the heroes. None of them are perfect.

Rather, what I’m struggling with is why these entities are painted as the villains.

In a perfect world, I’d rather that there be no villains, as I don’t blame current educators for the existing system’s failures.

But if reporters need to find a villain, why do they so often go after the educators who work in charter schools that are trying to make things better – and that often are?

Why do they  go out of their way to find a villain other than the very schools that are currently failing children?

V. Why?

I’m not sure, but a few guesses below.

  1. I think the education reform community has at times over-promised on what charter schools can do, and this opens charters up to criticism when they don’t meet these promises, even if they are performing better than the traditional system.
  2. Emotionally, I think reporters (rightfully) empathize with plight of students stuck in failing schools – and this sometimes bleeds over to empathy with the adults working in the failing schools – adults who might lose their jobs if charters expand.
  3. While charter schools are generally educator led non-profit organizations, many billionaires support charter schools, and I think this support creates a suspicion that charter will increase educational inequality, akin to how the economy has seen a spike in inequality over the past two decades.

These are just guesses.

VI. A Story

Recently, I was talking to a charter school parent.

He told me that after he visited his neighborhood school he knew that he could not send his daughter to that school. He said at that point he had three options: he could get her into a charter school; he could find a second and third job to afford a private school; or he could move his family.

But he was not going to send her to a failing school.

 

Who is the villain?

Who is the hero?

How to Increase Funding for Public Schooling by ~10 Billion a Year

Facilities are very expensive, and all things being equal, spending less on facilities allows for more money to be spent on instruction.

This report found that in Chicago charters spend 46% less on facilities than does Chicago Public Schools.

I imagine this is a larger deferential than in most districts. And while I don’t I have time to do a full research review, in most jurisdictions I work in I deal with facility costs, and it’s generally the case that charters spend less per student than the district does.

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Instead of 46%, let’s consider a lower end estimate of a 15% differential.

Here’s what we spend national on facilities, according to the NCES:

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So about ~1K for capital outlay and .37K for interest on debt (which I imagine has a facilities component to it) out of a total of 12.4K.

Let’s call roughly 10% of the per-pupil or 1.2K per student.

Reducing this cost by 15% would save us $180 dollars per student or a 1.5% decrease in total spending.

On an overall budget of $621 billion, we’d save about $9 billion a year.

Let me know if I got my math wrong….

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These are all very rough estimates, and while they are fairly conservative, they could be wrong.

But it’s surely plausible that we could shift $10 billion a year from facilities costs to instructional costs by moving to an all charter school system.

Spent well, this could support tutoring, field trips, class size reductions – or whatever educators and families thought best.

To the extent you believe money matters in schooling, it’s worth considering how increasing charter school development can drive more money into educational experiences rather than overpriced buildings.

Number Crunching: Introducing the State Charter Growth Index

Given major differences in state size, I was curious which states were doing well on charter growth when controlling for their populations.

I played around with state numbers for total new school charter growth and net charter growth (growth minus closures), and then compared these numbers to overall state population.

From there, I converted (schools / state population) into an index.

See results below with two caveats: (1) I don’t think new school numbers are totally clean (2) I was doing a lot copying and pasting in excel and I might have made mistakes.

Let me know if my math is wrong and I will fix the sheets.

High Growth States: 25+ on Growth Index or 20+ on Net Index 

Yes, somewhat arbitrary cut offs, but anyways…

For 2015, the major (proportional) drivers of new school development were: DC, DE, AR, TN, RI, AZ, CO.

For 2015, the major (proportional) drivers of net new school development were: DE, TN, RI, NH, AR.

Surprises

I was surprised to see Delaware, Rhode Island, and Arkansas do so well. Yes, they are small states. But still…

Also interesting to see Michigan and Ohio having negative charter school growth given that everyone always complains about loose authorizing in these states.

Laggards

New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are really doing poorly, reflecting, it seems, the weak charter growth in New York City, Philadelphia, and Chicago. The politics in the more left learning big cities remains pretty brutal.

That being said, New York had 18% enrollment growth, so perhaps school count isn’t catching something or a lot previous openings are still adding grades.

Virginia is a perennial laggard as well.

Data Feels Off

My guess is data is off in New Jersey, where multiple schools often open under one charter

New School Index 

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Net New School Index 

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Pearson’s Law, FAT Law (?), More Data Please

Thanks to everyone who responded publicly and privately to last week’s posts on charter data.

It really helped me clarify my thinking.

Some further thoughts below.

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Scott Pearson made an interesting point about charter growth / closures trends. Scott noted that:

  1. National new school openings have been fairly consistent over past decade: 400-500 per year.
  2. National closure rates have also been fairly consistent at 3-4%.

Given this, we get Pearson’s Law: if national new school openings and national closure rates both remain at historical constants, eventually we will hit a year of zero net new schools.

In short, because the closure rate is based on total existing charters, eventually total existing charters will be large enough that a 3-4% closure rate means more schools are closing than opening.

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Smart people at Arnold Foundation said they’d much rather know total of net new high-quality openings than simply net new openings. I agree. See end of post for all I’d want to better understand.

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Others raised the point that perhaps many of us may have been wrong: growing the sector through very high bar authorization (NY, MA, etc.) might end up being an inferior strategy scaling the sector rapidly and then cleaning it up (FAT states: FL, AZ, TX).

For whatever it’s worth, in New Orleans I think we took a middle ground here: we grew the sector with less quality control than MA but more than the FAT states.

All told, the most recent data has moved a few notches over to the FAT strategy.

But I don’t think the FAT strategy should be a law yet. Still much to learn.

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Moving forward, I think we’d be much better off we had the following national data:

  1. Total new openings
    • With new school being defined as the initiation of an expansion that will lead to an increase of enrollment of +300 students over time.
    • With data scrubbed by every state charter association contacting each operator to get exact data.
    • Maturity: school tagged as start-up, early stage replication (2-4), large CMO.
    • Quality: each operator is tagged by some quality measure (CREDO?) so we understand what % of expansions are high-quality replications.
    • Source: each school is tagged to a source, if any (Charter School Growth Fund, New Schools Venture, BES, local harbormaster, etc) so where we understand where schools are coming from.
    • Geography: Urban, suburban, rural.
    • Diversity: whether CMO leader / school leader is person of color.
  2. Closures
    • Cycle: whether closure occurred during renewal or through crisis.
    • Age: how many years charter had been in existence.
    • Enrollment: how many students school enrolled.
    • Authorizer: whether it was district, non-profit, state, or university.
    • Quality: how school performed on state tests and / or CREDO (and perhaps attainment as well).

 

The Net New Charter School Growth Rate Just Plummeted to a Decade Low

I just spent some time with charter school growth numbers from 2005 to 2015.

I think these numbers are right but please do correct me if they are wrong.

I tried to look at a few data sources, and not all of them agreed, though they were roughly aligned so I feel like the below is a reasonable estimate of new school creation by year.

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From 2005 to 2013, net new charter schools great at a healthy ~7% a year.

And then in the past two years the net new school growth rate has plummeted, as has the absolute number of new schools created.

In 2015, there were only 132 net new school created compared to 310 in 2006. 

Some Reflections

1. If, like me, you believe that high-quality charter schools will be a major source of increased educational opportunity, this data is probably not good news.

2. There is some chance that this most recent data is reflecting a Great Cleanup. In this last year, 272 charter schools were closed, which drove down the net new school creation (404 schools opened, which is lower than one would hope, but not catastrophically low by historical standards).

3. Interestingly enough, charter school enrollment still grew by 9% this year. This could be the result of charter schools that opened in previous years growing to full enrollment (this often takes 3-4 years); new schools are being opened in ways that aren’t showing up in the data (a middle school adds a high school under the same charter); or virtual schools distorting the school to enrollment ratio (by enrolling thousands of students). Or something else I’m not thinking of.

4. All these closures + lower rates of new school creation could just mean that the sector is taking quality much more seriously. Perhaps the result of the Great Cleanup will be that the next CREDO national study will show better results.

5. My biggest worry is that this data reflects a slowdown in entrepreneurship; that some combination of politics, regulation, national mood, vision, etc. is causing great educators to not take the jump to open an awesome school.

6. I feel a little lonely in digging through this data! When labor data is announced, you have 10,000 economists and pundits analyzing the numbers. I feel like there’s about five of us in the country who do this with charter data. Of course, I don’t expect the amount of analysis to rival national economic data, but it feels like that for a sector of this maturity there is not a ton of data analysis. And, yes, I’m now in a position to fund others to increase this capacity, so if this doesn’t get fixed I’ll share some of the blame.

Let me know if any of this data is off and I will correct it.

 

The Great Charter School Clean Up?

 

Florida, Arizona, and Texas are known for having large charter school markets with large variation in quality.

Taking the first letter from each state name, let’s call these the FAT states.

All told, charter sectors in FAT states serve about 750,000 students (AZ = 180,000,FL = 280,000, TX = 280,000) – or about 25% of all charter students in the country.

Results in the FAT states have been mixed.

Here is what CREDO found in 2015 when they studied Texas charter school data:

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Even in urban areas, where charters usually perform the best, Texas charters lag compared to their traditional peers.

Previous CREDO studies in Arizona and Florida have found negative to mediocre results; however, more recent studies, especially those focusing on attainment, have found more positive results.

But, in terms of matched test results, the FAT states tend to poorly when compared to the charter sectors of Louisiana, Colorado, and Massachusetts.

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The FAT states split the reform community.

For many of those whose posts show up on Jay Green’s blog, the FAT states are exactly what we need: high levels of entrepreneurship, disruption, and parent choice.

For many of those whose posts show up on CRPE’s blog, the FAT states have serious shortcomings: they represent the triumph of free market mania over the pragmatic restraints of quality control.

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But something interesting is happening in the FAT states.

They are closing a lot of charter schools.

Last year, Florida closed 35 charter schools; Arizona closed 30 charters schools; and Texas closed 62 charter schools.

In Florida, regulators closed ~5% of all charter schools in a single year.

In Arizona, regulators closed ~6% of all charter schools in a single year. 

In Texas, regulators closed ~8% of all charter schools in a single year.

These rates are higher than the national charter school closure rates of ~4%.

In the case of Texas, their closure rate was double the national average.

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We will learn much from the behavior of the FAT states (the next great charter paper must be lurking in this data).

Here are questions for which I would love to know the answer:

  1. How do the schools that are being closed compare to district schools peers in terms of academic growth, post-secondary attainment, earnings, and parent and student satisfaction?
  2. Over a long-period (25 years?) is it better for a state to let a thousand flowers bloom and then clean up the sector or to put on tight quality controls at the outset and then  allow for measured replication? Or somewhere in-between?
  3. How does the size of a charter sector affect its political support in the state legislature?
  4. How does the quality of a charter sector affect its political support in the state legislature?
  5. How does support in the state legislature affect quality control measures?

I’m sure there is more to be mined from the behavior of the FAT states.